Qualifying Situation: New Zealand, Pakistan locked in closed clash

Cricket News, Qualifying Situation, New Zealand, Pakistan locked in closed clash New Zealand and Pakistan at the ICC Men's Cricket World Cup 2023

Nov 5, 2023 - 03:59
Nov 5, 2023 - 04:05

With the last two sets of matches remaining for each team (Pakistan and New Zealand have one game each), India and South Africa are the only two teams to have qualified for the semi-finals, while reigning champions England and Bangladesh are mathematically out of contention. Here's what's at stake for each team heading into the final two rounds of the league stage.

His was New Zealand's fourth defeat on the bounce and how well they were positioned midway through the tournament put them on slightly shaky ground. The best case scenario for them would be to beat Sri Lanka and hope the other team is there with eight points.

As far as Pakistan are concerned, they need to lose to Sri Lanka and Afghanistan to lose at least one more game, and England and ideally New Zealand. If New Zealand win by 10 runs or the last ball against Sri Lanka, Pakistan will need to bowl out England for 135 runs or 21 overs respectively (assuming the first score is 250 balls). Pakistan will play their last league game after their game against New Zealand, giving them the advantage of knowing the exact NRR scenario. However, if Afghanistan win their remaining two matches (against Australia and South Africa) and Australia beat Bangladesh, both Pakistan and New Zealand will be eliminated.

Where does Australia's win leave them and Afghanistan?
A fifth win on the bounce puts Australia in a commanding position, as another win would seal their semi-final berth. The only way they can miss out is if they lose both matches and are on 10 points, Pakistan or New Zealand win at least one of their final games and multiple teams finish on ten points and come to play the NRR (in the scenario above, Afghanistan depends on their result against South Africa can finish 12 or 10 points).

Thanks to a resurgence of late in the tournament, Afghanistan are the only team outside the current top four who still have their destiny in their own hands. Two wins would take them to 12 points and secure a place in the semi-finals. With both Pakistan and New Zealand losing their respective league games and winning just one, they can also go through. Both Pakistan and New Zealand currently have a better NRR than Afghanistan and could overtake Afghanistan in a three-way tie on 10-points.

India (Q) 7 7 0 2.102 14
South Africa (Q) 7 6 1 2.29 12
Australia 7 5 2 0.924 10
New Zealand 8 4 4 0.398 8
Pakistan 8 4 4 0.036 8
Afghanistan 7 4 3 -0.33 8
Sri Lanka 7 2 5 -1.162 4
Netherlands 7 2 5 -1.398 4
Bangladesh 7 1 6 -1.446 2
England 7 1 6 -1.504 2

Pakistan's victory was in favor of Sri Lanka and the Netherlands?
While Chinnaswamy's results put both Sri Lanka and the Netherlands in contention, in reality their chances hang by a thread. If any of the three teams currently on eight points win another match, both teams are eliminated regardless of the results of their games. The only scenario for Sri Lanka and the Netherlands to qualify is if both teams win their remaining two matches to reach eight points and the three teams currently sitting on eight points all stay there and come to play the NRR. Having said that, both of these teams still have the worst NRR among the teams in contention and will need to win by a large margin to lift it.

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